Fantasy Analysis:
The Joe Johnson Trade
August 24, 2005
The deal that will send
Joe Johnson to the Atlanta Hawks has finally been completed. The
package the Hawks sent back to the Suns included
Boris Diaw and some conditional first round picks. Johnson made a
name for himself last season shooting a stellar 47.8% from three point
range...and he wasn't necessarily being picky about his shot selection
taking an Antoine Walker-ish 4.5 attempts per game. In his previous
two season he shot only 33% from three point range. To make such an
improvement he must have really practiced - OR more likely he reaped the
benefits gathering the least attention of the vaunted starting five for the
Suns. With Stoudemire commanding attention down low and Nash's crafty
passing, Johnson enjoyed many good looks. This will not happen in
Atlanta. Look for Johnson's three point percentage to be back in the
low 30's next season with an associated drop in scoring.
The Hawk's three best players (that would include JJ,
Josh Childress, and
Josh Smith) play the same swing GF position. They don't have a
point guard so they decided to call Joe Johnson a point guard. While
you would think that would bode well for his assists, it is unlikely he
will see much improvement on the 3.6 apg he averaged for the Suns.
The Hawks next two best players,
Al Harrington and
Marvin Williams, are best suited to play the small forward position.
So there is FIVE swing type of players. The addition of Johnson puts in
doubt how many of the stable of swing men the Hawks have will be on the
court at the same time. In terms of lost fantasy value, Al Harrington
is at risk unless he shows he can handle the PF position. Last season
he averaged 7 rebounds per game but it took him nearly 39 mpg to achieve
that. He may be thrown to the wolves there as the Hawks don't have
manyother choices. If Marvin Williams has some of the potential that is
expected from him it will also put Al Harrington's playing time at risk.
Johnson put up some decent numbers last season but it took him nearly 40
mpg on a fast paced Suns offense to accumulate. Fantasy managers
should not be fooled into thinking the big contract he got means he will be
generating big stats for the Hawks. The one thing he should do though is
show up as his attendance record in his four years in the NBA has been
outstanding. The other Josh's should continue to develop as they have
some obvious talent.
Completely lost in all of this is
Boris Diaw, an intriguing player, who came from Atlanta -and guess what
position he plays - swing man. Must have been tough for the Hawks to give
up one of their precious swing men. Oddly, the Suns have less depth at his
position with Raja Bell likely starting at SG and
Shawn Marion likely moving back to SF. However the opportunity
may arise for Diaw when the Suns want to have Marion playing PF
periodically and Diaw should benefit offensively playing in the Suns system
with
Steve Nash. He has shown some potential on a per minute basis in the A,
R, S, and B categories (for a guard) and the Suns should help to bolster
his previously weak offensive game. If there is any winner
(fantasy-wise) in this whole deal I would say it is Diaw. The
question is whether your league will be deep enough to add him to your
roster in the late rounds. Find that out that and more by ordering
The HoopsKlyce Customized Player Rating Report for the 2005-2006 season.

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